Poisson Betting Calculator
Scorelines and results from expected goals.
How to Use This Calculator
- Input the home team’s expected goals (drawn from your own analysis or xG data)
- Input the away team’s expected goals
- Read off probabilities for home win, draw, away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Consult the scoreline probability grid for individual score predictions
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the Poisson distribution applied to betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that estimates the probability of a set number of events (goals) happening within a fixed interval. In football betting it is broadly applied to derive match scorelines from expected-goals averages.
Where do expected goals come from?
Expected goals (xG) figures are available from football statistics sites. Failing that, compute a team’s mean goals scored per game across recent fixtures. More advanced models factor in home advantage, opposition strength, and current form.
Is the Poisson model reliable?
Poisson delivers a sound baseline for football forecasts. Its key weakness is the assumption that goals are independent events, which doesn’t always hold (momentum, red cards). It performs best on pre-match forecasts in leagues with stable scoring patterns.
Which markets suit the Poisson model?
Poisson is applied most often to 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS). It also extends to Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time forecasts.